Arbitrage is the act of purchasing an item at a low price and then selling that item at a higher price to generate profit. It is a popular method used by players to make money. This became much less common after the addition of the Grand Exchange and the removal of unbalanced trade. After the GE update, it was no longer simple for merchants to act as an intermediary between an item buyer/supplier who seeks to easily sell and a seller/consumer who seeks to easily buy—the GE replaced this. Some players, however, began using the Grand Exchange to make money in other ways—long term trend prediction, time-based arbitrage, price manipulation, GE to "real-price" arbitrage, and item conversion.
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Players can make money in the GE through several methods.
Understanding the Grand Exchange is important to trading. Free players may have 2 slots, while members may have 6. Players may not sell an item immediately after buying it, or buy an item immediately after selling it. More specifically, when an item is traded, a timer of exactly 4 hours is started, and the opposite transaction for this type of item may only be conducted when the timer has expired. The timer does not start over if additional items are traded. For example, if you were to buy some nature runes at 2 p.m., you may be able to buy more at 5 p.m. but still be able to sell all of them at 6 p.m. when the original timer expires.
There is no limit to the amount of items a player may sell in any given time period. However, all items have limits on the number that can be bought in a given time period. This also uses the 4 hour timer.
Not all items have the same buy limit. The following are buy limits for a selection of items:
If an offer is placed in the Grand Exchange, and it is a valid offer (not still on the timer), the game will search for all offers meeting your price or better, and instantly complete those trades, getting the prices of the already existing offers (not some sort of compromise price). If the offer is then not fully completed, it will wait until it is found by people placing in offers. Thus, all trades occurring in the Grand Exchange occur instantly for one person and not instantly for the other.
Basically, if you are trying to merchant, you do not want your half of the deal to be the instant half because you could have gotten a better price by waiting.
It also is important not to panic while trying to buy or sell items when you still may be on the timer, because your trade will not be completed no matter how good your offer is. Many people appear to not understand this, and put in buy offers for maximum or sell offers for minimum when they are locked out. Then, when their timer expires, the offer becomes valid and is snapped up by a lucky person.
A common misconception about the Grand Exchange is attaching special meaning to the median price. In reality, the median price is the average price of yesterday's trades and may no longer be relevant.
In general, items are always rising in price or falling in price. If an item is rising in price, an attempt to sell it for median price will be instantly completed, and an attempt to buy for median price will not be instantly completed. The opposite is true for items falling in price.
Imagine that you could buy an item instantly, then sell it instantly. As an example, let's say that whips are 1800k median price, and you instantly buy for 1850k, and instantly sell for 1801k. This means that at the current time it is possible to buy or sell whips for any price between those two, but not outside this range. Of course, if you were buying, you'd want to buy for maybe 1802k, and if you were selling, you'd want to sell for maybe 1849k. You want to be the person who gets a good deal by getting people's instantly completed offers. You want to pay as little as possible, or sell for as much as possible, so that you beat out the next person in line for those instantly completed offers.
Notice the characteristics of this example: the item is rising in price, so the best buy offer is just above median price, but the best sell offer is much more above median price. If the item is falling in price, the best sell offer is just below median price, but the best buy offer is much more below median price. This model is not true if the rate of price change is too high; in some cases, an item may be completely bought out at the maximum price, or completely dumped at the minimum price.
The two most important elements of investing are to be aware of prices and price trends, and also how recent updates or general trends in RuneScape are affecting the market. Following are some investment strategies. However, as with all investments, there is never an absolute guarantee for profit or loss!
A common misconception is that a good investing strategy is to buy items that are going up in price. It is true that this is sometimes effective, but prices always fluctuate; in other words, price increases are always followed by price decreases, and vice-versa. These often are of a magnitude of several days each, but can be longer. In general, it is not a good idea to invest in items that have already been going up in price for a long time; rather, invest when the price is still falling but when you think the price will start rising soon, or invest very shortly after the item has started rising.
Carefully watch the price of an item and sell it when the price starts going down or begins to level off. Ideally you would sell while the item is still going up in price, the day before the price reverses and item starts going down in price. However, it is not always easy to predict exactly when this will be. Players may want to explore the RuneScape Grand Exchange on the Runescape website to examine price trends. Players may find the Grand Exchange Market Watch helpful, although the Grand Exchange Database can be even more helpful, and the prices are usually up to date.
Be aware that there are price manipulation clans which will artificially try to raise the price of certain items. They will continually buy an item until the price goes way up, then they will all dump the item, causing the price to crash. When they crash happens you will have no advance notice and you will be unable to unload your items even at minimum as the market will already be flooded. This form of manipulation is known in the real world as a "pump and dump" scheme. Be aware of this scheme and when you see a common item going way up for no discernible reason, be very cautious of investing in it.
Another good way to invest is to read the Runescape news found in the homepage of the website, and look for new updates or hints of new updates. For example, the release of PvP worlds resulted in increased demand for sharks, swordfish, runite items, dragon daggers, Dragon scimitars, and other popular player-killing equipment and supplies. Those merchants who had seen this coming and stocked up on these items before the update would have made quite a substantial amount of profit. Another good example is rares: before the holidays, people like to buy Santa hats. They will almost always go up in price in the weeks leading up to Christmas, or at least the prices will fluctuate more. Richer people will buy some of these, and sell them once they go up. However, due to a popular perception that Santa hats would be worth the most on Christmas, Santa hats have been known to crash before Christmas as players' expectations did not live up to the reality. In 2008, Santa hats started crashing several days before Christmas.
Those who want to do some very long term investing may not be concerned with small price trends, but rather should hold onto an item for months with the hope of a large profit. For example, dragon bones were worth about 1800 coins each in December 2008, but as of July 2009 were worth about 3000 coins each. Also, prices of discontinued items seem to reach an annual bottom in late March or the middle of April, but then rise during the summer.
However, if you are thinking of investing a large sum of your cash, it may be worth it to research the general price that most of the items will stop going up or going down at. If you don't you may be at risk to lose large sums of money. Rares, however, exhibit very low trading volume, which makes them risky short-term investments. Unless very familiar with their price trends, trade in items that are in better supply than rares.
Flipping involves buying an item for as little as possible and then selling for as much as possible within a few hours. See the whip example above for an illustration of how flipping works. Flipping is unique in that it can be used to profit from an item falling in price, by buying for much below the median price and selling for a little under in the median price. This is sometimes called reverse flipping as opposed to regular flipping for an item rising in price but this distinction is not always made.
It is worth noting that on 8 June 2009, Jagex locked the clan chats of several well known price manipulation clans, taking a somewhat firm stance against this form of trading, although no clear statements were made.
One clan trading strategy is "price manipulation". It is analogous to collusion, which is illegal when done in the real world. While not strictly a rules violation (except in the forums, where posts to coordinate price-manipulation are strictly forbidden), most players consider it an unethical activity because the clan members benefit at the expense of other players, and often clan leaders at the expensive of most of the other clan members.
The way this works is that a large group of players buy as many of a single item as possible, causing the price to rise over the course of several days. The players then sell back the item at the inflated price, resulting in potentially huge profits. This trick is magnified by the mechanics of the G.E., which do not allow a single player to purchase more than a certain number of certain item types per day (eg: 100 of every type of fur every 4 hours).
This collusion is a form of price manipulation and, while not formally against the rules (to date), is discouraged by Jagex. Jagex has stated that they can intervene as a last resort, "if we think price manipulation is going on, although the system has lots of safeguards to prevent that," so there is some potential for Jagex to actively suppress an excessive rise or fall in price. In one case, leaders of a manipulation clan claimed that uncut emeralds had failed because they had reached a price cap and Jagex had released thousands of uncut emeralds into the game, but there was no evidence that this had occurred.
There is much evidence of the leaders of some price manipulation clans engaging in unethical insider trading, acting on information before releasing that information to the clan as a whole: stocking up on the item before announcing it to the clan in order to buy at the lowest price, dumping their own merchandise to get the highest price before telling other clan members to dump merchandise, telling clan members to continue buying when the item has actually failed (in order to support prices while the leaders sell). They may also make a false show of democratic process, acting like clan members have a say in the choice of item when in fact decisions are made by the leadership. In most public manipulation clan chats, the option for unranked people to talk has been disabled. Players often may message ranked people to answer questions, but certain types of questions are ignored.
Jagex has issued conflicting statements about merchant/price-manipulation clans. In one post, Mod Jon H stated that, "We don't see anything wrong with merchanting [read: price manipulation] per se," but cautioned that clan members had no way to determine whether their leaders were advising them in good faith or using them for personal gain. However, CEO Mark Gerhard later discouraged the practice: "I see merchanting clans as pyramid selling schemes, where, typically, only a handful of players actually make any money and everyone else loses money - just like real-life pyramid schemes. Because of this, we are not in favour of them in RuneScape, and try to warn players not to participate in them." To date, however, there has been no obvious action taken to stop this form of price manipulation as a whole except, perhaps, where other rules have been violated. In fact, many players publicly advertise these clans at the Grand Exchange every day with no apparent consequence.
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Price-manipulation can be a very good way to make money, especially if you already have a decent amount to invest. However, the risks can be potentially disastrous, so paying close attention to prices and playing RuneScape regularly are important. Also, make sure that you can trust the clan you join. If the clan keeps "dumping" early, then never invest any money into that clan. If you aren't sure about the clan, do not immediately invest all of your hard-earned cash. Even when every appropriate measure is taken, however, there remain unavoidable risks.
As most players consider this a "grey" area in the rules, players engaged in price-manipulation clans should keep abreast of Jagex announcements regarding rules and rule interpretations and should be careful that their own behaviour remains within the rules. Jagex is the final judge of what is or is not a rules violation, and allegations of deception involving present or possible future value of items may be punished under the item-scamming rules, so avoid anything that might be interpreted by others as deceptive or misleading, including insider trading and making promises about potential profits.
Price manipulation clans act in the same way that casinos do in real life. Players can bet large amounts of money, or small amounts. Players may bet and lose or win massive amounts of money.. Some may win more because their strategy is better (ex: not selling at advertised clan price target but at a half or a third of it). In the end, however, "the house" always wins. In this case, the house is the group of clan leaders who decide when to dump items.
Typically, common items that are traded (by merchants with the intention of margin profits on short-term price movements) are those that are also produced and consumed relatively frequently.
Those items that have a bigger daily price variation produce the most percentage (margin) profit for flippers, but are also, in turn, more difficult to buy in large quantities because of the low volume of trade. Note that the low volume of trade is produces the price variation in the first place. Thus, merchants who increase the volume of trade benefit on the current price variations but also end up reducing the future price variations by the very act of trading on the GE, eventually reducing profits.
In general, players should try to sell when they think the price has reached an acceptable price. Items usually (with the exception of rares) do not rise in price forever -- if you wait too long, the price will eventually fall!
Below are some commonly bought and sold sets. This chart will give you a rough overview of price trends, but may be slightly out of date. For more accurate information it is recommended to check the Grand Exchange graph for the specific item, available through the Runescape home page.
Note: To do this most effectively you may find it beneficial to have enough money for a few of the sets that you are thinking of reselling. Please note that it can still work with one set, although you may not make as much money. For most of these sets listed, there is a max buy quantity of 10 every four hours.
| Icon | Item | Price | Direction | Low Alch | High Alch | Store | Details | Days | Last updated |
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| Rune armour set (l) | 204,900 |
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Not sold | view • • graph | 2 | 3:45, 4 February 2010 (UTC) | |||
| Adamant trimmed armour set (l) | 444,300 |
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Not sold | view • • graph | 1 | 13:22, 5 February 2010 (UTC) | |||
| Black gold-trimmed armour set (l) | 1,700,000 |
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Not sold | view • • graph | 2 | 3:45, 4 February 2010 (UTC) | |||
| Black trimmed armour set (l) | 582,500 |
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Not sold | view • • graph | 1 | 08:21, February 5, 2010 (UTC) |
| Icon | Item | Price | Direction | Low Alch | High Alch | Store | Details | Days | Last updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rune trimmed armour set (l) | 1,800,000 |
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Not sold | view • • graph | 2 | 3:45, 4 February 2010 (UTC) | |||
| Rune gold-trimmed armour set (l) | 2,800,000 |
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Not sold | view • • graph | 2 | 3:45, 4 February 2010 (UTC) | |||
| Guthix armour set (l) | 2,400,000 |
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Not sold | view • • graph | 2 | 3:45, 4 February 2010 (UTC) | |||
| Saradomin armour set (l) | 5,800,000 |
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Not sold | view • • graph | 2 | 3:45, 4 February 2010 (UTC) | |||
| Zamorak armour set (l) | 3,900,000 |
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Not sold | view • • graph | 2 | 3:45, 4 February 2010 (UTC) | |||
| Gilded armour set (l) | 5,600,000 |
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view • • graph | 2 | 3:45, 4 February 2010 (UTC) |
| Icon | Item | Price | Direction | Low Alch | High Alch | Store | Details | Days | Last updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrows - dharok's set | 9,000,000 |
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Not sold | view • • graph | 2 | 3:45, 4 February 2010 (UTC) | |||
| Barrows - torag's set | 2,800,000 |
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Not sold | view • • graph | 2 | 3:45, 4 February 2010 (UTC) | |||
| Barrows - verac's set | 6,800,000 |
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125,000 | 575,000 | Not sold | view • • graph | 1 | 13:22, 5 February 2010 (UTC) | |
| Barrows - ahrim's set | 4,100,000 |
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Not sold | view • • graph | 2 | 3:45, 4 February 2010 (UTC) | |||
| Barrows - karil's set | 5,300,000 |
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8 | 12 | Not sold | view • • graph | 1 | 13:22, 5 February 2010 (UTC) | |
| Barrows - guthan's set | 5,700,000 |
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Not sold | view • • graph | 1 | 08:18, February 5, 2010 (UTC) |
| Icon | Item | Price | Direction | Low Alch | High Alch | Store | Details | Days | Last updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Splitbark armour set | 141,300 |
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77,000 | view • • graph | 2 | 3:45, 4 February 2010 (UTC) |
| Icon | Item | Price | Direction | Low Alch | High Alch | Store | Details | Days | Last updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infinity robes set | 7,400,000 |
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view • • graph | 2 | 3:45, 4 February 2010 (UTC) |
Another technique is to work with armour sets. Occasionally an armour set can be bought, split up into its component parts, and sold for a profit. Occasionally, the reverse will be true: the component parts could be bought and the armour set could then be sold for a profit.
Be aware that this method is only for experienced merchants, price changes must be monitored on not just one item, but sometimes five items or more simultaneously (the set price and all the component prices). Unexpected trouble obtaining or selling one of the component parts can quickly turn a profit into a large loss.
This method is extremely difficult (and not recommended) for F2P merchants, as they only have 2 slots to work with.
The Method
Potion decanting is a great way of making money for the lower levels. In fact, you don't need any levels at all to use this method for making money! This involves converting potions into a different doses to sell for a greater value than the original potion. Although currently on the GE a potion's value is simply based on the amount of doses it has (a 2-dose is always half the value of a 4-dose potion), the potions' values fluctuate in the min/max price range, and therefore the actual price -- the price at which a dose can be sold on the GE -- of a 2-dose potion may be higher or lower than that of a 4-dose potion.
One example of a potion to decant would be the Antifire potion: Buy a set (at the mid price or lower) of, let's say 100 Antifire potion(3). Go to the Grand Exchange, and go to the southwest corner where Bob Barter is. Right click him, and select "decant". He will then turn all 1, 2, and 3 does potions into the 4 dose versions of each. This is essentially him using them all with each other, like players can do. Doing this with several inventories of potions converts the 100 (3) antifires into 75 Antifire potion(4), which can then sell for a higher price than the component parts (in this example, above the mid price). This is typically not a great profit-making scheme, but if the demand is there, profits can be increased proportionally with the investment.
Suggested potions
The fastest way to make money trading is by being the leader of a large manipulation clan. However, this is a questionable practice and not many people have this opportunity.
Otherwise, the fastest way to make money trading is mostly flipping combined with some long-term investing. Players could make perhaps 1-2% on their invested gp per day doing this.
Players with relatively more money will find it more difficult to use flipping because of the difficulty in buying large amounts of items quickly -- both because of artificial GE buying limits and because a single buyer's order can temporarily increase the demand so much that the price increases, negating any chances of easy flipping.
Players with large amounts of money could, instead of flipping, make several long-term investments on items they think will rise, buying (or selling) stocks of an item they would like to invest in through the span of several days.
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